Big 12 Bubble Watch

Discussion related to the K-State men's basketball team

Big 12 Bubble Watch

Postby IStillLikeHarv » February 13th, 2018, 10:45 am

We are down to the nitty gritty! Everyone says that results are judged independently of conference, and that is true, sort of. It is also true that there will almost certainly be 7 or more Big 12 teams in the NCAA tourney. Where do they all stand today?

I see the Big 12 as being three groups:

The clear Top Three are TTech, KU, and WVU. They are not only ranked 1, 2, 3 in the Big 12, but they are also all ranked in the AP top 20. They are all tourney "locks" at this point.

The Huge Middle has six teams: KSU, OU, BU, OSU, TCU, and Texas. Four of these teams will probably make the NCAA tourney, and two will probably be left out -- though 8 bids are possible and some pundits have even talked about the possibility of 9 bids for the Big 12. If the other four are in but OU and/or Texas are near the bubble, they could get pushed over the hump because the NCAA wants Trae Young and Bamba in the tourney -- particularly OU with their flashy RPI.

The Sad Little Puppy in the Big 12 right now is ISU, but it is also a nasty little puppy that can jump up and bite any of the Huge Middle teams home or away. Bad, bad, puppy!

I won't pretend to predict anything because I think every Huge Middle game from here on out is going to be a war -- with casualties. That said, here is my take on what their remaining schedules look like based on the following criteria: I assign a score of +1 if the opponent is ISU and -1 if the opponent is TTech, KU, or WVU. Here are the schedules including current record, number of remaining games, and schedule ratings (positives are good, negatives are bad):

KSU 6-6 (6 games) +1
OU 6-7 (5 games) 0
BU 6-7 (5 games) -2
OSU 5-7 (6 games) -1
TCU 5-8 (5 games) 0
Texas 5-8 (5 games) -2

Based on that, KSU is currently in the best spot and Texas is currently in the worst spot with the other four all jumbled together. Of course this will change from game to game over the next 5/6 games.

My prediction: The Big 12 tourney will be very important for most of the teams in the Huge Middle!

Hey, at least it is exciting (or nerve wracking if you prefer). :D
Last edited by IStillLikeHarv on February 13th, 2018, 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Big 12 Bubble Watch

Postby Piedmontcat » February 13th, 2018, 11:25 am

Texas and TCU needed to win last night and didn’t. It’s pretty clear that the national pundits are pulling for both of them and OU over KSU, Baylor, and OSU. We just need to win. We have 7 games left (minimum). Need to win any 4 of them. If we can’t go 1 game over .500 with the schedule we have left, then we don’t deserve to get in. Sure would be nice to go on a streak right now and alieviate the the pressure on the last couple of games.
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Re: Big 12 Bubble Watch

Postby IStillLikeHarv » February 13th, 2018, 11:34 am

A win tomorrow night at OSU would be huge for KSU. Not even close to "lock up a bid" huge, but still huge. I really think it is going to go down to the wire for most or all of the teams in the Huge Middle. Unless, of course, ISU goes on a tear because they are only half a game out of the bottom of the Huge MIddle! Who knows what happens if they get hot.

:lol:
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Re: Big 12 Bubble Watch

Postby hilltopwildcat » February 13th, 2018, 1:39 pm

I think we beat whoever Barry can drive on. If we don't get penetration, everything gets stale.
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Re: Big 12 Bubble Watch

Postby tmcats » February 13th, 2018, 2:45 pm

hilltopwildcat wrote:I think we beat whoever Barry can drive on. If we don't get penetration, everything gets stale.


i'm absolutely convinced you're right, h'top. that's why we've been so troubled by the top 3 who defend his drive so well.
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Re: Big 12 Bubble Watch

Postby Wyldkatz » February 13th, 2018, 7:10 pm

Considering we shoot below average % 3 out of every 4 games. I am not convinced we have a good chance at making the dance. I see us going 8-10 in league play unless we get hot in more than 2 of our remaining 6 games. I think 9-9 gets us in, 8-10 leaves us out. We've gotta make some outside shots at a more consistent rate if we have any chance. We will be zoned a lot in all our remaining games and our outside shooting has been abysmal. Kam shot a 3 from the corner last game that hit the top of the backboard for crying out loud. He has got to get back to himself, we can't rely on Dean and the occasional Sneed to be our only outside scoring.
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Re: Big 12 Bubble Watch (updated)

Postby IStillLikeHarv » February 13th, 2018, 9:30 pm

KSU can't back into an NCAA berth -- they have to win some games, but the results tonight were favorable since KSU wants all Huge Middle teams to lose to all Top 3 teams. ISU wasn't much of a threat anyway, but OU losing makes it a little easier to stay even with or ahead of them.

I will now update the original post to reflect tonight's games (at least I think I can).

:oops:
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